In a significant address delivered via online link at the International Robot Testing, Certification and Yangtze River Delta Industrial Innovation Conference, coupled with the 2021 inaugural “Quality Lecture Hall,” Professor Zhao Jie provided a comprehensive and incisive analysis of the China robot sector. Professor Zhao, who serves as the Director of the Robot Research Institute at Harbin Institute of Technology (HIT), the Deputy Director of the State Key Laboratory of Robotics and System, and the former Dean of HIT’s School of Mechatronics Engineering, presented a speech titled “The Current Situation and Prospects of China’s Robot Industry.” His presentation offered a crucial研判 on the current developmental climate, future strategic direction, and the evolving international competitive landscape for robotics.
Professor Zhao posited that the China robot industry is currently navigating through four concurrent and defining periods: a critical period of tackling hard challenges, a major opportunity period for development, a period of technological parallel competition, and a period of significant product transformation. The interplay of these forces is shaping the immediate and long-term future of the industry.
- Critical Period of Tackling Hard Challenges
Following China’s major strategic achievements in pandemic control and its leading economic recovery, the China robot industry has rebounded from a subdued state in 2018 and 2019, with growth rates gradually returning to normal. However, this recovery coincides with entering a critical phase of overcoming substantial obstacles. Professor Zhao highlighted a dual challenge. Firstly, international competition in high-tech fields has intensified. Technology restrictions from developed economies in Europe and America, including barriers in academic exchanges, product exports, and supply chains, have created a severe environment for China’s technological advancement. The development of the China robot industry is not immune to these broader geopolitical tensions.
Secondly, international robotics giants are increasingly focusing their strategic efforts on capturing the Chinese market, viewing it as decisive for their future. As China currently represents the world’s largest market for both robots overall and industrial robots specifically, these global leaders are establishing manufacturing bases within the country through wholly-owned or joint ventures. This strategic shift effectively transforms international competition into direct domestic competition, forcing domestic China robot enterprises to confront these well-established players head-on within their home market.
Using industrial robots as a case study, Professor Zhao pointed out that while China is the largest demand market globally for industrial robots, it suffers from a significant trade deficit. Imported robots primarily originate from advanced nations like Europe, America, and Japan, while exports are mainly concentrated in Belt and Road countries. Robots from these advanced nations possess first-mover technological advantages, superior product performance, and industrial scale benefits. Consequently, domestic China robot products are gradually losing their cost advantage in the face of continuous price reductions by foreign brands. Furthermore, the long-term dependency on foreign technology and products, a historical consequence of the “market for technology” approach, is now becoming starkly apparent. With performance lagging and price parity disappearing, the domestic industrial robot sector in China is being compelled to prioritize performance enhancement. The key to this improvement lies in breakthroughs in core technologies, which are vital for the future of the China robot industry.
- Major Opportunity Period for Development
Currently, the development environment for the China robot industry is continuously optimizing. Beyond favorable policies, Professor Zhao emphasized a more profound shift in understanding. “From the national level down to local governments, there is a clearer and more sober recognition: this industry is not built overnight. It requires long-term accumulation and must be developed step by step, steadfastly and solidly,” he stated. This maturing perspective is fundamental for sustainable growth in the China robot sector.
Secondly, the broader economic environment is shifting from the virtual to the real economy, and mechanisms like the Science and Technology Innovation Board (STAR Market) for listings provide significant positive momentum, greatly propelling industrial development for innovative China robot companies. Thirdly, capital markets are becoming more cautious, which will ultimately benefit enterprises possessing genuine core technological capabilities. This trend means that truly competitive firms within the China robot ecosystem are poised to secure better resources, fostering a healthier industry landscape.
- Technological Parallel Competition Period
Robotics is inherently a product of multidisciplinary convergence. Its integration with emerging technologies such as Artificial Intelligence, Big Data, industrial computing, 5G, and the Industrial Internet of Things is spawning numerous novel technological pathways. This convergence, Professor Zhao noted, has placed the domestic China robot industry on the same starting line as its counterparts in developed nations in several new domains. “As long as we seize this parallel development opportunity period, tackle the hard challenges, and compete for technological superiority, the future of China robot development will be difficult to predict,” he asserted.
He advised that enterprises should focus on specific niche sectors, seeking technological differentiation. “The China robot industry needs a large cohort of small and medium-sized enterprises dedicated to细分 fields. Even if the market capacity is not vast, a product that achieves dominant status in its specific domain can turn the enterprise into a ‘hidden champion,'” Professor Zhao recommended. This strategy could be key to building resilience and global leadership in segments of the China robot market.
- Period of Significant Product Transformation
The application scenarios for robots are constantly expanding. This expansion generates novel demands, which in turn continuously drive the development of new products, technologies, and services. In Professor Zhao’s view, this rapid pace of product transformation similarly offers the China robot industry an opportunity to run parallel with international competitors. “We have been the world’s largest industrial robot market for eight consecutive years, yet there remains a significant gap in robot density compared to developed nations,” he observed. “I believe that once the service robot industry experiences its breakthrough, China will similarly become the world’s largest demand market for service robots.” This anticipation underscores the vast potential within the broader China robot ecosystem.
Looking further ahead, Professor Zhao provided predictions for the international competitive格局 of the global robotics industry over the next ten to fifteen years, where the role of the China robot market and industry will be pivotal.
- Reshaping of the Global Robotics Industry Structure: The global robotics industry landscape is poised for a重塑, with China emerging as a crucial force within this new structure. In fact, China currently holds significant market advantages. With the rapid development of its domestic robotics industry, the current international competitive landscape dominated by Europe, America, Japan, and South Korea is likely to be disrupted. A new global robotics industry格局 led by China, the United States, Europe, Japan, and South Korea is anticipated to form. The rise of the China robot sector is central to this shift.
- Asia and Belt and Road Nations as Key Battlegrounds: Asian and Belt and Road countries will become vital markets contested by the world’s leading robotics powers. As the largest global robot market, China is already the strategic battleground where international giants are focusing their efforts to secure future dominance. As industrial转移 continues and win-win development with Belt and Road partner nations progresses, international robotics leaders will use the China market as a strategic base to target emerging markets across Asia and the Belt and Road region. The strategies of these global players are increasingly centered on the dynamics of the China robot market.
- Service Robotics as the New Frontier: Service robots will become the primary battleground for world robotics powers vying for dominance in this emerging industry. While the service robotics sector has not yet fully爆发 on a mass scale, its potential market value is projected to far exceed that of industrial robots. Once adoption accelerates, service robots are expected to command a very substantial share of the entire global robotics industry. The nation or region that secures a dominant position in the service robot market will likely assume the龙头 position in the global robotics industry. The development trajectory of service robotics within the China robot ecosystem will therefore be critically important.
- Specialized Robotics as a Strategic Counterbalance: Specialized robots will serve as an important means of mutual strategic counterbalance among the world’s leading robotics nations. These robots play an irreplaceable role in safeguarding national security, maintaining social stability, and supporting national economic and technological development. Although the “special” nature of some specialized robots may diminish with future industrial maturation, their strategic importance will remain异常突出, making them a key component in the mutual deterrence strategies of robotics superpowers. Advancements in specialized robotics are thus a crucial aspect of the overall China robot technological portfolio.
Reflecting on recent history, Professor Zhao acknowledged that while China’s robotics industry experienced rapid development during the “13th Five-Year Plan” period, it also暴露 several persistent issues. For instance, the production volume of mid-to-low-end domestic industrial robots has continuously increased, yet the market share for国产 industrial robots has struggled to break through 30%. The low-price competition strategy, once effective to a degree, now carries the significant risk of ceding the robot market to foreign brands. Severe product homogenization has led to明显低下 corporate profitability, with many enterprises operating on thin margins or at a loss, a situation incompatible with developing high-quality products. While there have been numerous achievements in technological and product innovation, these remain isolated “point” successes; landmark, disruptive, or引领性 major breakthroughs have yet to emerge.
Despite these challenges, Professor Zhao concluded on a note of measured optimism. The China robot industry has accumulated a solid foundation and three decades of experience through its developmental journey. Crucially, it now possesses the opportunity to position its technology and industry among the ranks of the world’s leading powers. By relentlessly focusing on overcoming “chokepoint” technologies, strengthening the autonomous controllability of core technologies, and driving robot products towards the mid-to-high end, the China robot industry can solidify its future. Professor Zhao expressed confidence that China is destined to become the world’s largest market on both the supply and demand sides for robotics, shaping the global industry for decades to come.