Since human society entered the industrial age, as the only intelligent beings on Earth, humanity has never ceased to envision robots. Commercial robots, research robots, educational robots, military robots, engineering robots, and even the simplest household cleaning robots… At the 2015 (Beijing) World Robot Conference, across exhibition zones such as voice service, smart living, and exploring the future, audiences had zero-distance contact with the world’s most advanced industrial, service, and special-purpose robots. As Industry 4.0 gradually becomes clear, the business of robots has broken through the hard sci-fi imagination of the past, truly entering people’s lives and becoming the next factor to change the world.
Today, China has become the world’s manufacturing center for products such as automobiles, consumer electronics, communication terminals, and home appliances. Next, it is inevitably transitioning towards high-tech content and high added-value directions, which require more precise processing and manufacturing methods. Andrew Goldenberg, Academician of the Canadian Academy of Engineering, IEEE Director, and Academician of the American Academy of Mechanical Engineering, asserted that China has become a crucial market for global robot business. With the continuous improvement of China’s industrialization level and more frequent technological updates, China’s commercial robot industry is likely to experience a major explosion in the next decade. Simultaneously, over the next 10 years, China faces pressures from an aging population, rising labor costs, and industrial structural upgrading. The advantage of cheap labor is fading, and industrial robots replacing manual labor will become the most significant development trend.
Against this backdrop, labor-intensive enterprises with increasingly high human costs are beginning industrial transformation. Some low-end manufacturing has shifted to Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam, Cambodia, and Myanmar, while some electronics technology companies unsuitable for regional transfer, like Foxconn, have started extensively deploying robots for automated production lines, improving technological levels and output while laying off a large number of manual workers.
In 2011, China’s robot shipments reached 23,000 units, accounting for 13.8% of global shipments, ranking fourth globally, with a year-on-year growth rate of 51%. From 2004 to 2012, the compound growth rate of industrial robots in China was 29.7%, and from 2009 to 2012, the compound growth rate reached 71.9%. In 2012, domestic robot installations reached nearly 27,000 units, an increase of 19.5% compared to the previous year, higher than the forecast by the International Federation of Robotics. In 2014, new installations of industrial robots in China reached 32,000 units, a year-on-year growth of 16%, with the growth rate continuously increasing. Over the next three years, China’s robot industry will be in an overlapping period of opportunities: national policy dividends, release of industrial transformation and upgrading demands, weakening demographic dividend, and growing market demand. The China robot business opportunity is imminent; seizing it will allow us to occupy the high ground of new manufacturing.
1. The Definition and Historical Evolution of Robots
Robot, also known as a mechanical man. Broadly speaking, a robot is an automatic device created by humans that can mimic human actions; narrowly, a robot is a multifunctional manipulator that uses specialized devices through various programming and can be reprogrammed. Technically, by skillfully integrating electronic computers, electronic technology, information technology, and control technology into traditional mechanical technology, robots are manufactured.
Therefore, robots represent “mechatronics technology.” The earliest inventor of the word “robot” was the Czechoslovak writer Karel Čapek (1890–1939), who defined robots as automatic machines similar to humans that could replace human labor. In 1921, he published a play titled “R.U.R.” (“Rossum’s Universal Robots”), which narrated the story of a company called Rossum introducing robots as industrial products to replace human labor, attracting widespread global attention. Čapek envisioned robots in the play as having almost identical bodies to humans, even with skin covered in fine hair. Since then, people have long viewed robots as superhumans resembling human forms.
After World War II, with the rapid development of science and technology, the world’s first electronic computer was born in the United States in 1945. In the 1970s, Western developed countries developed supercomputers, microcomputers, and computer networks. Especially after the advent of microcomputers, computers gradually entered production and social life. Robots descended upon the world in 1961, but large-scale manufacturing and use of robots began in 1979. In the following five years, robots “reproduced” at an average annual growth rate of over 30%.
It is noteworthy that during the 1980s, the concept of robots was still largely interpreted as “industrial robots.” U.S. President Ronald Reagan used the term “industrial robots” in a speech to illustrate that American manufacturing should achieve production automation, avoid workplace accidents, and improve efficiency. As the world-renowned “Robot Kingdom,” Japan demonstrated strong industrial robot manufacturing capabilities as early as the 1985 “Tsukuba Expo,” showcasing various robots, including a painter robot that could draw a portrait of a guest in two minutes and gift it, a friend robot that could close its eyes, open its mouth, and converse with people, and a performance robot that could understand human language and act accurately. Throughout the 1990s, Japan was both the largest manufacturer and consumer of industrial robots. It can be said that Japan’s robot manufacturing philosophy influenced the development of the global mechanical industry. In Japanese academia, a robot is not simply an automatic machine; it resembles humans, with functions such as hands, feet, a brain, senses, and vision. From a manufacturing perspective, it is a product combining electronic technology with traditional mechanical industry. Given a program, it can become one product; adding another program turns it into a different product. It can also enable multi-variety production, from rigid to flexible production, essentially a fusion system of physical and mental labor. In robots, the equivalent of the human brain is the computer, the equivalent of eyes, ears, nose, and touch are sensor devices, and the replacements for hands and feet are mechanical arms, drive wheels, etc. External information obtained through devices measuring physical changes is sent to the computer, and after judgment, instructions for various actions are issued. Thus, robots can replace humans in tasks that are difficult, dangerous, or overly monotonous. For example, the mechanical arm of a spacecraft can operate freely in the extreme and abnormal environment of outer space. Robots can replace humans in inspecting steam, oil, and natural gas pipelines. They can move freely within pipes, navigate sharp turns, and assess the integrity of undamaged sections. In recent years, welding, painting, and complex assembly processes have begun extensively adopting robots. In fields such as automobiles, shipbuilding, and home appliances, new arc welding processes are widely used, utilizing high temperatures generated by arc discharge for joining. Arc welding is an operation conducted in harsh environments involving high temperatures, ultraviolet radiation, and toxic gases.
Although Japan is the veritable “Robot Kingdom,” in reality, the birthplace of robots is the United States. In 1927, American Westinghouse engineer J.M. Barnard created the first robot “Televox,” exhibited at the World Expo in New York. Televox was an electric robot equipped with a radio transmitter that could answer some questions, but it could not move. In 1928, W.H. Richards invented the first humanoid robot. This robot had built-in motor devices, enabling remote control and audio control. In 1954, American George Devol first proposed the concept of an industrial robot and filed a patent. The key points of the patent were controlling robot joints via servo technology, teaching actions to the robot by hand, and enabling the robot to record and reproduce actions. Based on this, in 1959, George Devol and Joseph Engelberger invented the world’s first industrial robot, named Unimate (Universal Automatic), meaning “universal automation.” Engelberg was responsible for designing the robot’s “hands,” “feet,” and “body,” i.e., the mechanical parts and operational components; Devol designed the robot’s “brain,” “nervous system,” and “muscle system,” i.e., the control and drive devices. Unimate weighed two tons and was controlled by a program on a magnetic drum. It used hydraulic actuators for drive, with a large mechanical arm on the base that could rotate around an axis, and a smaller mechanical arm extending from the large arm that could extend or retract relative to it. At the tip of the small arm was a wrist that could rotate around the small arm for pitch and yaw. At the front of the wrist was the hand, or end-effector. This robot’s functionality resembled that of a human arm. Unimate’s accuracy reached 1/10,000 of an inch.
In 1961, the world’s first industrial robot produced by Unimation, co-founded by George Devol and Joseph Engelberger, was installed and operated at General Motors in Trenton, New Jersey. This industrial robot was used to produce car doors, window handles, gearshift knobs, lamp brackets, and other interior hardware. Following program instructions on a magnetic drum, Unimate’s 4,000-pound arm could sequentially stack hot-pressed metal parts. From that moment, the development of industrial robots has never stopped.
In 1962, American Machine and Foundry (AMF) manufactured the world’s first cylindrical coordinate industrial robot, named Verstran (Versatile Transfer), meaning “universal transfer.” In the same year, six Verstran robots made by AMF were applied at the Ford Motor plant in Canton, USA. In 1967, a Unimate robot was installed and operated at Metallverken in Upplands Väsby, Sweden, the first industrial robot installed and operated in Europe. In 1969, General Motors installed the first spot welding robot at its Lordstown assembly plant. Unimation robots greatly improved productivity, with over 90% of body welding operations automated by robots. Only 20%–40% of welding work in traditional plants was done manually. After this, the United States, with its preliminary technological accumulation,率先 entered the field of more advanced intelligent robot production, and robot R&D was elevated to a national strategic level. Presidents Reagan, George H.W. Bush, and Clinton all issued policies encouraging robot manufacturing, especially the rapid development of robots in the U.S. military sector. From the Gulf War to the invasion of Iraq, the U.S. military has been using auxiliary robots for battlefield operations. For example, Boston Dynamics (now acquired by Google), spun off from MIT in 1992, successively developed military robots like the bipedal “Atlas” and quadruped all-terrain robots “BigDog” and “Cheetah,” astonishing the world. They were among the world’s first batch of quasi-military robots and are still in service in Afghanistan. With the rise of Silicon Valley and the information technology revolution, the U.S. robot market developed rapidly, becoming one of the world’s most active, technologically advanced, and完善的商业市场.
In 2013, the U.S. government issued a robotics technology roadmap titled “From Internet to Robotics,” released jointly by the IEEE Robotics and Automation Society along with universities like MIT, CMU, UC Berkeley, and the University of Pennsylvania, detailing plans for robot development in five areas: manufacturing, healthcare, services, space exploration, and defense.
The Japanese government, in its “Manufacturing White Paper” (2014 edition) released in June this year, announced the “Robot Strategy,” proposing three core goals: “World Robot Innovation Hub,” “World’s No. 1 Robot Utilization Society,” and “Leading the World into the New Robot Era.” To achieve these three core goals, the strategy set a five-year plan to ensure Japan’s world-leading position in robotics.
Simultaneously, South Korea, a latecomer excelling in robot R&D, formulated the “Intelligent Robot Basic Plan” (2014–2018). This plan aims to enhance South Korea’s robot R&D capabilities, promote robots across industries, foster an open robot industry ecosystem, and build a robot industry convergence system, particularly highlighting research and development for robot health facilities, showing strong foresight.
2. The Current State and Market Potential of China Robot Industry
Although China’s current robot stock is considerable in number, the quality is relatively low. China’s industrial robots started in the early 1970s, undergoing萌芽 in the 1970s, development in the 1980s, and practical application in the 1990s. After decades of development, it has初步 formed scale. Currently, some key robot components have been produced, and industrial robots such as arc welding, spot welding, palletizing, assembly, handling, injection molding, stamping, and painting have been developed. A batch of domestic industrial robots already serve on production lines of many Chinese enterprises, and a group of robot technology research talents has emerged. Some related research institutions and enterprises have mastered optimization design and manufacturing technology for industrial robot manipulators; hardware design technology for robot control and drive systems; software design and programming technology; kinematics and trajectory planning technology; and development and preparation technology for arc welding, spot welding, and large robot automated production lines with peripheral equipment. Certain key technologies have reached or接近 world levels.
Currently, compared to countries like the U.S., Japan, and South Korea, China’s robot density is still very low. Data from 2011 showed only 21 robots per 10,000 employees, less than the world average of 55 per 10,000. Even after剔除不可比因素, there remains significant room for improvement in China’s robot density, indicating巨大潜力 in the China industrial robot market.
In recent years, in the Chinese market, besides rising installations, the industries applying robots are continuously expanding.
The automotive industry remains the largest application field for robots in China, accounting for 41%, primarily using six-axis通用 robots; the consumer electronics, electronics/electrical industry, and semiconductor (i.e., 3C industry) are labor-intensive sectors,大量使用 SCARA and low-payload articulated robots (e.g., desktop robots), collectively accounting for 21%; the metal products industry also mainly uses six-axis通用 robots, accounting for 17%. The food, beverage, and personal care industries are also significant users, increasingly adopting parallel robots for rapid loading and unloading of goods in recent years.
From the perspective of growth rates across fields, the 3C industry has the highest增速, with the consumer electronics industry’s commercial robots showing an annual compound growth rate of 20.2%, while automotive, as the traditionally largest volume领域, has the lowest growth rate in the coming years.
The reasons for this lie in three decisive factors for the爆发 of China robot business given China’s current manufacturing level: First, rising labor costs and the gradual disappearance of the demographic dividend. Increasing labor costs激发 enterprises’ demand for robot替代人工. Second, declining labor supply. In the mid-1990s, China’s manufacturing employment人数大幅下降. During 1998-99, the state-owned enterprise下岗 crisis occurred, with traditional manufacturing like textiles bearing the brunt. After joining the WTO in 2001, China’s manufacturing employment began slowly recovering. However, entering the second decade of the new century, the post-80s and post-90s labor force became mainstream, unwilling to engage大量 in monotonous, repetitive, and poor-environment jobs. Labor shortages in low-end industries in regions like the Yangtze River Delta and Pearl River Delta became apparent. Finally, manufacturing industry upgrading and national policy support. Popularizing robots is not merely about replacing labor but an important means to enhance manufacturing efficiency and flexibility.
As early as the early 1990s, when China’s改革开放爆发实效, international robot giants began scrambling to enter the Chinese market. Foreign robot enterprises represented by the four major families—ABB, KUKA, Yaskawa Electric, and Fanuc—once occupied over 90% of the China robot market share.
Of this 90% market share, the four families—ABB, Fanuc, Yaskawa, and KUKA—accounted for 57.5%. The next three manufacturers—OTC, Panasonic, and Kawasaki Heavy Industries—共占 16%. Domestic robot manufacturers had relatively small market shares, with 2012 statistics showing本土品牌机器人市场占有率仅为 8%, and individual enterprises普遍存在 issues like small scale and weak innovation capabilities.
This competitive格局 is related to most domestic robots being used in the automotive industry. Foreign robot manufacturers often绑 with major automotive enterprises. For example, Volkswagen uses only KUKA robots, often purchasing 1,000-2,000 KUKA robots for a new factory; General Motors mainly uses Fanuc; European car brands also prefer ABB. Domestic automotive enterprises have their preferences; for instance, Great Wall uses Yaskawa’s Motoman, and Jianghuai Automobile uses ABB. Domestic robot enterprises struggle to compete with foreign products in the automotive sector. Foreign robot enterprises’ advantage in the automotive industry is because other manufacturing capacities have转移 to China, while automotive manufacturing remains保留 overseas.
The best robot本体 are still European products, with KUKA being the顶级, while ABB robots’ quality declined somewhat after国产化. Japanese brands like Yaskawa, Fanuc, Nachi-Fujikoshi, and Panasonic, compared to欧美 products, offer good quality at reasonable prices, better meeting Chinese customer needs. South Korea’s Hyundai robots are mainly used within the Hyundai Group for Hyundai Heavy Industries and Hyundai Motor, with relatively few external sales.
Japanese robot enterprises like Yaskawa and Fanuc attach great importance to the Chinese market. Taking Yaskawa as an example, it initially cooperated with Shougang on robot本体 and recently partnered with Hangzhou Kaierda on robot本体. Moreover, Yaskawa has done an excellent job in domestic market布局 in recent years, with offices in almost every important market. If no domestic enterprise can excel in本体 in the future,估计 the China robot market will be dominated by Japanese companies.
The four major robot families all highly value the Chinese market, investing and building factories in China, but only ABB has achieved真正的研发和生产本土化. Others like KUKA and Fanuc have not truly国产化. While foreign robot enterprises抢占市场, they have cultivated talent and a relatively完善的供应商体系 for the domestic robot industry.
Regarding China’s current robot market, its产业链主要包括四大环节: core component production, robot本体 manufacturing, system integration, and industry application. Currently, the真正能赚钱的业务 for Chinese robot enterprises is system integration. Key components have not been truly国产化, resulting in domestic robot本体 costs being far higher than foreign counterparts, making it difficult to scale. Taking reducers as an example, the price domestic enterprises pay for reducers is nearly five times that paid by foreign enterprises. The prices of key components like servo motors and controllers, as well as corresponding开源 software prices and R&D costs, are also significantly higher than foreign同类 products. This requires breakthroughs in three aspects for China’s robot industry: key components, robot本体, and system integration.
3. Policy Support and Major Events for China Robot Development
For China’s manufacturing sector, the most重磅 policy since 2015 is the “Made in China 2025” action plan, which提到 that China must vigorously promote breakthrough development in key areas,瞄准新一代信息技术、高端装备、新材料、生物医药等, and推动优势和战略产业快速发展机器人. It focuses on application demands for industrial robots and special robots in industries such as automobiles, machinery, electronics, hazardous goods manufacturing, national defense, chemicals, and light industry, as well as service robots in医疗健康,家庭服务,教育娱乐.
To implement President Xi Jinping’s讲话精神 at the两院院士大会 regarding robot industry development, actively promote the innovation-driven development strategy, and achieve leapfrog development in China’s robot technology and industry, approved by the State Council, the China Association for Science and Technology, the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, and the Beijing Municipal Government jointly hosted the 2015 (Beijing) World Robot Conference. On November 23, President Xi Jinping sent a congratulatory message to the conference,指出 that the智能产业 represented by robot technology is蓬勃兴起, becoming an important标志 of modern technological innovation. China has incorporated robotics and intelligent manufacturing into the national priority areas for technological innovation. Premier Li Keqiang, in his批示 for the 2015 World Robot Conference, stated that China is implementing the innovation-driven development strategy, vigorously promoting大众创业万众创新, Internet Plus, and Made in China 2025, which will有力促进 the growth of the emerging robot market, creating the world’s largest robot market.
This World Robot Conference involved 12 international robot organizations and 58 domestic research institutions. Over 100 experts and scholars from more than 10 countries and regions including Hong Kong, Macao, and Taiwan participated in keynote reports and专题论坛. Over 100 domestic and international enterprises participated in the robot expo,集中展示 a wide range of robot products. Youth teams from 16 countries and regions, totaling 145 teams, participated in the two-day World Adolescent Robot Invitational Contest.
This year’s conference was unprecedented in scale and the number of participating enterprises and countries,充分说明 the bright prospects for China robot business. Under the backdrop of intelligent manufacturing and driven by artificial intelligence technology, robots, 3D printing, and many other advanced technologies will undergo significant changes. Robots will truly possess the ability to receive information, process information, communicate and interact with humans, and应对许多非固定性模式挑战. Traditional robots will gradually evolve from mere automation equipment into advanced human assistants and tools, not just production tools but also生活工具.
4. The Future: Robot Industry 2.0 Era and China’s Role
In the Robot Industry 1.0 era, the primary role was to replace humans in heavy physical labor, liberating大量 industrial workers from production lines. The Robot Industry 2.0 era,即 the intelligent era of robots (also the next generation of robots), is the product of integrating traditional robot technology with众多先进技术 like big data, cloud computing (庞大的服务后台), the Internet of Things (互联网与精密传感技术), and information technology (网络技术与计算机技术). We must intensify research in artificial intelligence technology, promote breakthroughs in speech recognition and image recognition, advance高精密度传感技术, foster machine deep learning, and promote integrated innovation in information processing and breakthroughs in machine brain technology. The United States began布局 the Robot Industry 2.0 era as early as 20 years ago. The new generation of robot industries represented by Google robots is rapidly rising and will重新引领全球机器人产业发展 in the Robot 2.0 era.
The Robot Industry 2.0 era is a全新 era for the robot industry. Service platforms and terminals constructed with information technology support will改写 the numerous service and business models combining robotics and intelligence. Our robot enterprises and research institutions should尽早参与 in Robot Industry 2.0 era research, actively seize the China robot business opportunity, and ultimately achieve the伟大变革 of intelligent manufacturing,即 Industry 4.0.
The China robot market stands at a critical juncture, with immense opportunities driven by technological advancement, policy incentives, and market demands. The integration of robotics into various sectors promises to enhance productivity, foster innovation, and position China as a leader in the next industrial revolution. As the global landscape evolves, the focus on China robot development will undoubtedly shape the future of manufacturing and beyond, making it imperative for stakeholders to collaborate and invest in this transformative field.