As a high-tech product integrating various advanced technologies, robots have received significant attention from researchers and governments worldwide. They are widely applied in our daily lives, playing a crucial role in driving progress. More importantly, since 2009, robots have stood out in the global economic slowdown, maintaining rapid development. China has been the largest robot market globally since 2013, holding this position for six consecutive years, and also achieving the highest growth rate for the first five years. Robots in China represent a major investment trend, and in recent years, with the support of new technologies such as artificial intelligence, big data, and the internet, this trend has expanded, with momentum accelerating rapidly.
However, just as everyone saw robots advancing vigorously along this trend and ushering in a new era, last year, the global robot market, including the fastest-growing and largest China robot market, suddenly reached an inflection point. It shifted from high-speed growth to low-speed zero growth or even negative growth. So, is this the winter for robots, or is spring just beginning? What opportunities and challenges does the entire robot industry face? Today, I want to analyze and share insights on this.
From 2013 to 2017, the China robot market consistently held two global maxima: the largest market share and the fastest development speed. But last year, an inflection point emerged. First, there was a decline of approximately 3.75%. Data from McKinsey align closely, indicating around 4%. Secondly, regarding market share in the China robot market, we often discuss the broad concept of this market, which includes foreign brands and domestic robot products. Through comparison, we can observe overall changes and the development of China’s domestic robot industry.
Even last year, against the backdrop of a 3.7% decline in the total China robot market share, domestic robot companies delivered a relatively perfect performance, with domestic product growth at 16%. While the overall market下滑, foreign brand sales dropped by 10.9%, or roughly 11%. Another key change is evident in the comparison of market share between foreign and domestic brands. From 2013 to 2016, the market share of China brands continuously rose, but in 2017, it suddenly decreased. In 2018, despite the overall market decline, China’s market share returned to about one-third, or 33%, marking a significant shift.
I will now provide a detailed analysis and comparison based on three aspects: robot structure, operation type, and application领域.
| Robot Type | Overall Market Share | Domestic Product Share |
|---|---|---|
| Articulated Robots | ~60% | ~43% |
| SCARA Robots | Second largest | Third largest |
| Logistics Robots | Third largest | Not specified |
The entire China robot market is dominated by articulated robots, accounting for almost 60% of the market share. The second is SCARA robots, followed by logistics robots. This reflects the structural analysis changes in the China robot market.
For domestic robot products in China, articulated robots also comprise 43%, which is generally consistent with the international trend—60% versus 43%. The second is Cartesian robots, and the third is SCARA robots. This shows the changes in domestic products within the China robot market.
Despite the unfavorable overall conditions last year, domestic robot products experienced rapid growth across articulated, Cartesian, and SCARA robots, a highly encouraging development.
Analyzing application areas, the overall China market saw declines in many sectors, with year-on-year decreases, but domestic products mostly showed growth, indicating their rapid expansion. Among operation types, handling and loading/unloading dominate, accounting for 44% of the overall market and 55% for domestic products, largely aligned but with slight differences.
| Industry | Overall Market Share | Domestic Product Growth Trend |
|---|---|---|
| Electrical & Electronic Equipment | ~33% | Growing |
| Machinery Manufacturing | Significant portion | Growing |
| Metal Processing | Decreasing | Decreasing |
| Automotive Manufacturing | Decreased from ~45% to ~33% | Growing for domestic brands |
By industry, the largest share is in electrical and electronic equipment, accounting for about one-third, followed by machinery manufacturing, metal processing, and others. Previously, the global market, including China, saw automotive manufacturing占 nearly 45%, and earlier around 50%, but last year, this area declined significantly. The chart shows decreases in automotive, electrical/electronic, and machinery manufacturing, with only metal processing行业 declining, while automotive manufacturing, plastics/chemicals, and electrical/electronic sectors are growing for domestic brands. This对比 highlights changes between domestic and international brands in the China robot market. The most significant change is the衰退 in automotive, a traditional stronghold for robots, which is key to the overall decline in the global and China robot markets last year.
We can observe the mutual changes between domestic and international brand products in the China robot market in recent years:
First, from a structural perspective, changes in Cartesian, parallel, articulated, and SCARA robots. For Cartesian and parallel types, domestic robots hold certain advantages, while articulated and SCARA robots are still dominated by foreign brands (represented in green), indicating that China has some disadvantages or shortcomings in high-end robot areas compared to foreign brands.
From an application type viewpoint, the first three show China with some advantages, but the latter three, especially the last two like welding and assembly, are still led by foreign robot companies. Changes from 2017 to 2018 show an upward trend, suggesting that the competitiveness of domestic robot products in China is gradually improving.
Analyzing robot industry applications, the first three areas show China with some advantages, while the latter three show disadvantages, particularly in the automotive industry, which is a短板 for domestic enterprises. There are likely two reasons: on one hand, robots used in automotive require high quality and reliability, and although significant development has occurred recently, there remains a gap compared to foreign counterparts. The automotive industry has long been monopolized by foreign companies, with deep industry foundations and brand effects, whereas China robot industry development spans only over a decade, resulting in a considerable brand gap.
In summary, China remains the largest global robot market, but it has relinquished the No. 1 position in growth rate, with negative growth last year, overall around -4%衰退. This data may adjust slightly in the future, as production data from some foreign companies in China might not have been fully统计, possibly leading to 1%-2% changes. More crucially, against last year’s backdrop, domestic brands grew by 16%, while foreign brands declined by 11%, a major shift. In terms of market share, domestic products account for about one-third.
The challenges we face are significant. Why did the robot industry experience a转折 and下滑 last year? We attribute the原因 to major changes in the automotive industry. As seen earlier, the automotive industry’s share dropped from 45% to 33%, a substantial shift. The automotive industry has always been a primary market for robot applications, and the 3C industry’s weak growth last year also impacted robot market development. These two industries are the main reasons for the significant decline in the China robot market, where growth rates previously exceeded 50%, but last year saw nearly negative growth. Due to these massive changes in the China market, the global market’s growth rate last year可能 maintained at around 1%, almost zero growth, primarily influenced by the China market.
Under such conditions, what challenges do we face? The China robot market experienced five consecutive years of high-speed growth before a major inflection point last year, due to automotive industry downturn and 3C industry weakness, leading to growth下滑 in this largest global market. This, in turn, caused global market growth乏力.
Originally, the global market was projected to grow around 10% last year, but actual growth was only 1%, likely linked to significant changes in the China market, as it comprises one-third of the global market. Normally, with 30% growth, but now nearly negative, it represents about a 10-point impact.
This reflects how industrial robots, after years of high-speed growth, suddenly encountered a major inflection point and下滑. Simultaneously, robots are evolving from industrial to service, collaborative, and special types. How did these emerging robots perform last year? Let’s analyze.
Rethink, the pioneer of collaborative robots, went through a glorious period but suddenly shut down last year, a huge change. Collaborative robots were highly anticipated as a future支撑 for robot development, but now face重大变化.
Direct robots, with vision and force sensing, represented by Blue Workforce, also closed last year, despite developing unique features.
Service robots hold promise in consumer areas, healthcare, and more, but currently, they are more acclaimed than commercially successful, lacking market data support. Internationally, two renowned social companion robot companies suddenly closed, and in China, a notable company like Shanghai Tangbao Robot Co., Ltd., which excelled in service robots and held certificate No. 001 from认证机构, also shut down entirely last year. Thus, the service robot领域 experienced巨大动荡和变化.
Whether industrial robots or the next-generation robots—from collaborative to special to service robots—all face significant issues. Therefore, we can say that last year, from company closures to老板跑路 and failed bets, many companies ventured into new robot areas, but the outcomes were惨不忍睹, with institutions withdrawing investments. The emerging robot sector can be described as a feast followed by哀鸿遍野、一地鸡毛, truly dire.
Amid these巨大挑战, whether traditional industrial robots face constraints and inflection points, or新一代 robots show growth乏力 with new companies不断倒闭关门, is this the winter for robots? Or is it a transition into spring, akin to China’s “倒春寒,”即将迎来新的发展机遇? Let’s analyze what opportunities exist under such severe challenges, and whether the China and global robot industry face winter or a new spring.
Let’s summarize: industrial robots currently have several issues leading to growth乏力. First, traditional优势 markets are萎缩, while new markets have not formed. More critically, the low附加值 of robots难以支撑研发创新的高投入. Robots are a三高行业: high人才密集度, high技术密集度, and high投资密集度. However, in recent years, the附加值 of China robots has越来越低, mismatched with their high-tech nature, making it difficult to ensure continuous investment, innovation, and development. Another major problem in industrial robots is the恶劣的产业环境, which is拖垮各种集成公司. China may have thousands of integration companies, but payment conditions and final settlement times lead to cash flow shortages, hindering their growth. Due to these严峻挑战, industrial robots in China face一定的难度和大的拐点问题.
Service robots see their泡沫开始破灭, with many “angels” turning into “devils,” and market data支撑 remains a big issue, now entering a major洗牌阶段.
Special robots, as seen in exhibitions, urgently need破茧成蝶, a蜕变过程. While many prototypes exist, forming an industry and推向市场 requires true凤凰涅磐.
Collaborative robots可能是表现最好的, gradually entering markets and gaining industry recognition, but to become a large industry, significant challenges remain.
So, in this context, do we still have机遇? Is there hope? Technological breakthroughs and integration带来重大机遇, as today’s robots are no longer traditional mechanical-electrical devices but high-tech products integrating artificial intelligence, information electronics, big data networks, and感知系统. This new technological融合和突破赋予机器人最关键的一点: growth. If robots lacked growth性, remaining mere mechanical arms or devices, it wouldn’t justify events like the World Robot大会 or experts gathering to learn. The significance lies in robots’ growth性, transforming traditional industrial robots and expanding into other领域, from manufacturing to healthcare, defense, service, and consumption, representing the true hope and space for future robot development.
Manufacturing mode变革带来的机遇: globally, we are entering a new smart manufacturing era, Industry 4.0. This变革 provides机器人 with a巨大的市场依托和支撑, attributable to five factors: labor shortages to labor costs, global产能过剩 to personalized and customized market demands, and rapid technological and product迭代更新. These要素变化 shift manufacturing from batch, rigid, and large-scale to a new smart manufacturing and Industry 4.0 era. This change necessitates巨大变化 in productivity要素. The first three industrial revolutions emphasized efficiency, quality, and cost, while the fourth emphasizes flexibility, intelligence, and resources—social resources. This需求变化 leads to生产要素变化: the first three industrial revolutions relied on人 + machine equipment, but the fourth requires robots.
Why? Smart manufacturing or Industry 4.0, digital factories, and digital manufacturing require物物相联、物物相通, with big data信息不断流动. However, humans as direct生产要素 cannot achieve互联互通 and data flow with equipment. Thus, the new manufacturing mode has a挤出效应 on human labor and a刚性绑定效应 on robots, creating significant market机遇 for robots.
生产要素变化带来新的机遇: improvements in robot functionality and性能 represent巨大变化, enabling many enterprises previously unable to use robots to now adopt them. More critically, the rapid decline in robot成本价格 allows大批量使用 by companies that couldn’t afford them before. Currently, robots compete with human elements, illustrated by two curves:急剧减少 in human labor数量 and快速提升 in human labor成本和价格. These four要素相互作用 promote机器人快速推向市场, so生产要素变化 brings important development机遇 for robots.
Is our判断 correct? Based on historical robot development data, before 2009, over forty years, global robot stock was around one million units. In recent years, from 2010 to 2015, another million were added, and from 2016 to 2018, yet another million. This三级跳 shows robots entering a rapid,阶跃式 development历程, unlike past linear growth, indicating that the true爆发时间 for robot markets has arrived. Even with zero global growth last year, the past six years achieved what took forty years previously.
Another data point strongly supports robot development: robot density. Globally, it’s only 0.85%, and in China, 91 per 10,000 workers, or less than 1%, after forty years of development. In the next five to ten years, we expect robot substitution rates to exceed 30%, compared to less than 1% over the past forty years, showing that the robot market is truly arriving.
China is entering an intelligent+ era, and robots are precisely the巨大平台 for智能+, supporting manufacturing, defense, consumer life, healthcare, education, transportation, smart cities, and more. This isn’t mere substitution but颠覆和变革, so robots are迎来快速发展.
Robot technology is in a major变革时期, providing重大发展机遇 through technological breakthroughs, rapid product迭代, and跨界融合. Due to these巨大变化, robots are evolving from machines to true robots.
The robot market is in a major转换时期, shifting from traditional to emerging markets, representing future巨大潜力和支撑 for robot development.
The China robot industry is in an调整和升级时期, moving from pursuing quantity—from dozens to thousands of enterprises—to emphasizing quality, transitioning from low-level positioning to high-end development.
China robot enterprises are in a洗牌和再生时期, from野蛮生长 over years to上万家企业, now entering理性发展, focusing on strengths, accurate positioning, and proper development, which is the future hope for China’s industry.
What is our结论?机遇与挑战并存, and变革与颠覆成为常态. We can no longer equate rapid robot development with spring or slight滞后 with winter. Future development will surely be波浪式的, and this will be常态. Winning in the future depends on变革, whether technological or模式变革, a fundamental规律. More critically, as an产业 or企业, we must创造未来; we cannot守 it, and copying or following won’t yield未来. Fusion共生—everyone is part of a融合 platform,共享、共融、共赢—is the hope for global robot industry and experts to共同发展. This is why so many international experts and global robot professionals come to China for events like the World Robot大会 to协商发展, as it’s the future趋势. We firmly believe that the current phase is just a小小的转折点, and the true spring for robots is即将到来.
To further elaborate, let’s delve into quantitative analyses using formulas and tables. The growth rate of the China robot market can be expressed as:
$$ \text{Growth Rate}(t) = \frac{S(t) – S(t-1)}{S(t-1)} \times 100\% $$
where \( S(t) \) represents the market size in year \( t \). For instance, from 2017 to 2018, if the market size declined by 3.75%, we have:
$$ \text{Growth Rate}_{2018} = \frac{S_{2018} – S_{2017}}{S_{2017}} \times 100\% \approx -3.75\% $$
Similarly, for domestic product growth of 16%:
$$ \text{Domestic Growth Rate}_{2018} = \frac{D_{2018} – D_{2017}}{D_{2017}} \times 100\% = 16\% $$
and foreign brand decline of 10.9%:
$$ \text{Foreign Growth Rate}_{2018} = \frac{F_{2018} – F_{2017}}{F_{2017}} \times 100\% \approx -10.9\% $$
Market share for domestic products in 2018 is given by:
$$ \text{Market Share}_{\text{domestic}} = \frac{D_{2018}}{S_{2018}} \times 100\% \approx 33\% $$
These formulas highlight the dynamics in the China robot industry. Now, let’s consider structural analysis through a detailed table.
| Robot Structure Type | Overall Market Share (%) | Domestic Product Share (%) | Growth Trend (Domestic, 2018) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Articulated Robots | 60 | 43 | Positive |
| SCARA Robots | ~20 | ~15 | Positive |
| Cartesian Robots | ~10 | ~20 | Positive |
| Parallel Robots | ~5 | ~10 | Positive |
| Logistics Robots | ~5 | ~12 | Positive |
This table illustrates that while articulated robots dominate, domestic products show strong growth across all types, emphasizing the resilience of the China robot sector. The growth can be modeled as:
$$ G_i = \alpha_i \cdot M_i + \beta_i $$
where \( G_i \) is growth for type \( i \), \( M_i \) is market share, and \( \alpha_i, \beta_i \) are constants reflecting industry dynamics.
Regarding application领域, we can analyze the shift from automotive to other industries. The decline in automotive share from 45% to 33% represents a relative change of:
$$ \Delta_{\text{auto}} = \frac{33\% – 45\%}{45\%} \times 100\% \approx -26.67\% $$
This significant drop impacted overall market growth. Conversely, the growth in electrical and electronic equipment to 33% share indicates diversification. The substitution effect of robots can be expressed as:
$$ R_{\text{density}} = \frac{N_{\text{robots}}}{N_{\text{workers}}} \times 100\% $$
Currently, global \( R_{\text{density}} \approx 0.85\% \), and for China, it’s 91 per 10,000, or 0.91%. Future projections suggest:
$$ R_{\text{density, future}} \geq 30\% $$
over the next decade, implying exponential growth. The compound annual growth rate (CAGR) for robot adoption can be estimated as:
$$ \text{CAGR} = \left( \frac{R_{\text{density, future}}}{R_{\text{density, current}}} \right)^{\frac{1}{n}} – 1 $$
where \( n \) is years. For \( n=10 \), \( R_{\text{density, current}} = 0.0091 \), and \( R_{\text{density, future}} = 0.3 \), we get:
$$ \text{CAGR} \approx \left( \frac{0.3}{0.0091} \right)^{\frac{1}{10}} – 1 \approx (32.97)^{0.1} – 1 \approx 1.425 – 1 = 0.425 \text{ or } 42.5\% $$
This high CAGR underscores the potential for the China robot market, despite recent setbacks.
Furthermore, the integration of AI and big data enhances robot capabilities, described by:
$$ C_{\text{robot}} = f(\text{AI}, \text{Data}, \text{Sensing}) $$
where \( C_{\text{robot}} \) represents robot competency. As these technologies advance, \( C_{\text{robot}} \) increases, driving adoption. The cost-benefit analysis for enterprises adopting robots involves:
$$ \text{Net Benefit} = \sum_{t=1}^{T} \frac{(S_t – C_t)}{(1+r)^t} $$
where \( S_t \) is savings from labor substitution, \( C_t \) is robot costs, \( r \) is discount rate, and \( T \) is time horizon. With declining robot costs and rising labor costs, \( \text{Net Benefit} \) becomes positive for more firms, fueling the China robot expansion.
In terms of industry challenges, the payment issues for integration companies can be modeled as cash flow constraints:
$$ \text{Cash Flow} = \text{Inflows} – \text{Outflows} $$
where outflows occur upfront for robot deployment, but inflows are delayed due to long settlement times, leading to:
$$ \text{Cash Flow} < 0 \quad \text{for many periods} $$
This necessitates policy or market adjustments to sustain the China robot ecosystem.
For emerging robots like collaborative types, adoption rates \( A(t) \) can follow an S-curve:
$$ A(t) = \frac{K}{1 + e^{-b(t – t_0)}} $$
where \( K \) is maximum adoption, \( b \) is growth rate, and \( t_0 \) is inflection point. Currently, collaborative robots are early in this curve, with \( A(t) \) slowly rising, but expected to accelerate as technology matures.
Service robots face a different hurdle: market acceptance \( M_a \) depends on usability and cost:
$$ M_a = g(U, C) $$
where \( U \) is usability and \( C \) is cost. Current low \( M_a \) leads to commercial failures, but improvements in \( U \) and reductions in \( C \) could trigger breakthroughs for the China robot sector in service domains.
Overall, the China robot industry’s future can be summarized by a phase diagram: let \( x \) represent technological advancement and \( y \) market penetration. The dynamics are:
$$ \frac{dx}{dt} = \alpha x (1 – x) + \beta y $$
$$ \frac{dy}{dt} = \gamma y (1 – y) – \delta x $$
where \( \alpha, \beta, \gamma, \delta \) are positive constants. This system shows that as \( x \) grows (technology improves), \( y \) increases (market expands), but with feedback loops. Currently, we may be at a saddle point, but with innovation, the trajectory points toward growth.
In conclusion, the China robot industry is at a critical juncture. By leveraging formulas for growth, adoption, and integration, and through detailed tables summarizing structural and application data, we see both immediate challenges and long-term opportunities. The key is to embrace变革, foster融合, and drive innovation. The true spring for robots is on the horizon, and the China robot market will play a pivotal role in this global transformation.