The humanoid robot sector has emerged as one of the strongest market themes recently, yet a recent Goldman Sachs research report has cast a shadow over the industry, highlighting stark realities where technological and commercial progress may fall short of expectations. This revelation triggered a sharp decline in humanoid robot stocks, with the Oriental Wealth Humanoid Robot Index (BK1184) plummeting 7.68% and the Wind Humanoid Robot Index (8841699) dropping 6.91% on February 28. Concurrently, Zhongjian Technology (002779.SZ), a prominent 概念股 in the humanoid robot space, saw its stock price plunge 8.89% that day🔶1-5🔶.
A Strategic Shift: From Garden Machinery to Humanoid Robotics
Zhongjian Technology’s journey into humanoid robotics began in 2023 when it shifted its focus from garden machinery to robotic innovation. Bolstered by associations with high-profile entities like OpenAI and Huawei, the company’s stock has surged by over 70% this year. However, beneath the surface of strong expectations for robot core components lies an unavoidable challenge: commercialization. The industrial robot sector, for instance, faced a 下滑 in overall market demand last year, marked by oversupply, fierce price competition, and eroding profits. For industry players, balancing intense R&D efforts with finding viable commercial scenarios has become crucial to unlocking a second growth curve.
Chasing the GPT Moment for Humanoid Robots
Zhongjian Technology has made notable strides in robotic R&D. In 2023, the company established Shanghai Zhongjian Gaoke Robot Co., Ltd. to develop a new generation of lawn mowing robots. These robots feature autonomous mapping, cutting path planning, self-relocation, AI-powered obstacle avoidance, autonomous charging, and remote monitoring via an APP. With high mowing efficiency and minimal user intervention, they exemplify the company’s push toward intelligent automation.
In February this year, Zhongjian Technology revealed in an investor communication that its lawn mowing robots had secured small-batch orders and were in the process of expanding market reach and distribution channels. The company’s ambitions extend beyond lawn care, however. In March 2024, it invested in 1X Holding AS, the world’s first commercial general-purpose robot manufacturer. Founded in Norway in 2014 as Halodi Robotics, 1X made history in 2020 by securing an order for 140 humanoid robots from ADT Security Services, a leading U.S. security firm, marking the first global commercial deployment of humanoid robots.
Notably, OpenAI, a leading large-language model developer, has participated in two consecutive funding rounds for 1X since 2023. Hualong Securities’ research report suggests that 1X’s appeal to OpenAI stems from its integration of embodied learning principles in R&D, enabling robots to operate autonomously without remote control and improve movement accuracy through repeated tasks, thus achieving “human-likeness” in essence. 1X’s robots can perform tasks like picking up objects and opening/closing doors using “end-to-end data,” relying entirely on autonomous operation rather than remote or computer programming. OpenAI’s financial and technical support is expected to aid 1X in realizing its vision.
Zhongjian Technology has also forged a partnership with Huawei. In November 2024, the company attended the signing ceremony for the Enterprise Cooperation Memorandum of Huawei (Shenzhen) Global Embodied Intelligence Industry Innovation Center and inked the memorandum. More recently, it established Shenzhen Huazhijian Robot Technology Co., Ltd., with cooperation efforts currently under way.
Scaling Up: Capacity Layout and Industrial Vision
Driven by these high-profile collaborations, Zhongjian Technology is aggressively expanding its production capabilities. In December 2024, the company released a revised plan for a targeted stock issuance, adding an “Embodied Intelligence Robot Industrialization Project.” Implemented by its wholly-owned subsidiary Zhongjian Zhike, the project involves an investment of approximately 304 million yuan and is designed to produce 1.01 million pieces annually of humanoid robot components, actuators, sensors, and electronic skin.
Guosheng Securities notes that Zhongjian Technology possesses the capability to provide customized design and manufacturing services, catering to diverse client needs for terminal products. This versatility positions it to adapt to the evolving demands of the humanoid robot market.
The Icy Reality of Commercialization
Despite technological advancements, the commercialization landscape for humanoid robots remains challenging. A Goldman Sachs research report on Unitree Technology, obtained by 21st Century Business Herald reporters, suggests that humanoid robots may not match human worker efficiency in the next 2-3 years, though meaningful applications could emerge within 5-10 years. The report aligns with the view that the technological inflection point for humanoid robots remains unclear, as their capabilities still fall short of handling diverse general tasks. Goldman Sachs forecasts global humanoid robot shipments of 76,000 units by 2027 and 502,000 units by 2032, paces slower than market expectations. The firm emphasizes that AI-empowered robots require more time to mature.
Industry insiders interviewed by the Herald highlight another hurdle: while humanoid robots have achieved stable mobility, developing generalizable capabilities remains elusive due to undefined AI model architectures. Current approaches fall into two main paths: one starting from large language models to directly command robots, and the other, represented by Tesla, adopting an “end-to-end” scheme via imitation learning. In essence, the industry is still awaiting its “ChatGPT moment”.
Zhongjian Technology’s financial performance reflects broader industry pressures. In the first three quarters of 2024, the company reported revenue of 621 million yuan, up 31.38% year on year, but net profit attributable to shareholders dropped 19.40% to 40 million yuan. This discrepancy underscores the squeeze of intensified competition and profit erosion.
The struggles are not isolated. EFORT, a robot industry leader, disclosed in its February 27 earnings bulletin that its industrial robot and system integration businesses saw revenue declines in 2024, with total operating revenue falling 27.79% to 1.362 billion yuan and net loss widening 207.01% to 146 million yuan. STEP also acknowledged in its earnings report that while domestic robot manufacturers achieved a 21.3% year-on-year growth in the first half of 2024 and secured a 50.1% market share—surpassing foreign brands for the first time—overall market demand 下滑 and oversupply led to fierce price competition, driving down product prices and profits.
With commercialization still distant and technology immature, the industry remains in a phase of heavy investment. Zhongjian Technology’s financial data shows R&D expenses of 36 million yuan in the first three quarters of last year, exceeding the full-year figure for 2023. Striking a balance between hefty R&D costs and commercial application expansion stands as a pivotal challenge for every player in the humanoid robot space.
The Road Ahead: Ambition vs. Reality
Zhongjian Technology’s foray into humanoid robots encapsulates the industry’s dual narrative of ambition and adversity. The company’s strategic moves—from partnering with tech giants to investing in cutting-edge startups and scaling production—reflect a bold vision for the future of robotics. Yet, the harsh realities of technological bottlenecks and commercialization delays serve as a reminder that the path to widespread humanoid robot adoption is fraught with challenges.
As the industry navigates this landscape, the ability to merge technological innovation with practical market needs will determine who thrives in the race to create the next generation of humanoid robots. For now, the dream of a GPT-like breakthrough in humanoid robotics persists, but the journey from vision to reality demands patience, resilience, and a keen understanding of the delicate balance between R&D investment and commercial viability. In the end, only those who can bridge this gap will emerge as leaders in what promises to be a transformative sector.