In a vast workshop spanning nearly a thousand square meters, presses operate with methodical, precise, and rapid efficiency, stamping out parts. Thirteen mechanical arms deftly handle feeding and scrap removal, while a handful of workers attend to other stations in the production line. This is the daily scene at the automated stamping workshop of Geely Auto’s Hangzhou Bay base. If the presses are the stars of this show, then these mechanical arms—more commonly known as industrial robots—are undoubtedly the most crucial supporting actors.
A historic breakthrough has ignited excitement across the spectrum of those watching the China robot market. The International Federation of Robotics (IFR) reported that China’s purchase volume of industrial robots reached 23,000 units in 2012. This milestone propelled China to become the world’s second-largest robot market for the first time, trailing only Japan (28,700 units) and surpassing the United States, South Korea, and Germany.
However, as often happens, triumph and challenge are two sides of the same coin. Yao Zhijun, Deputy Secretary-General of the China Robot Industry Alliance (CRIA), provided a sobering counterpoint. According to CRIA’s statistics from its member companies, sales of domestically-branded robots in 2012 were just over 3,000 units. Comparing the market share of local and foreign brands in China, domestic brands hold a precarious 13-17%, a stark reminder of the intense competition facing the burgeoning China robot industry.
This harsh competitive reality is now irreversible for local robot manufacturers. Yet, within this pressure lies the impetus for development. The choice is stark: rise in competition or perish by it. Local enterprises urgently need to engineer their own redemption. As China’s demographic dividend gradually fades and the national industrial transformation and upgrading strategy provides further stimulus, the application of China robot technology is poised for expansion. The current robot density in Chinese manufacturing (21 robots per 10,000 employees) is set to advance toward, and potentially surpass, the global average (55 units). The prospect of “robots in every factory” could transform China into a true robot market powerhouse. On the eve of what the industry believes is an imminent explosion in the China robot market, everything is poised for action.
1. The Foreign Charge: Securing a Foothold in the China Robot Market
The history of industrial robots is well-established. In 1959, the world’s first robot company, Unimation, built the first industrial robot. Over fifty years later, Japanese and European products dominate the global landscape. The Japanese camp includes major players like YASKAWA, FANUC, and NACHI, while the European faction is led by Germany’s KUKA and Switzerland’s ABB. Statistics indicate that these four giants—KUKA, ABB, FANUC, and YASKAWA—collectively command over half of the global industrial robot market, and they hold an even more dominant position in the China robot market, exceeding 80% share.
The industrial robots in Geely Auto’s stamping workshop all come from ABB. This global powerhouse, headquartered in Zurich, Switzerland, first brought its robot business to the China robot market as early as 1994. Initially focused on sales, ABB began shifting its production, R&D, and engineering center to China in 2005, becoming one of the first multinational industrial robot providers to establish a full industrial chain locally.
Li Gang, head of ABB’s robotics business in China, explained, “Our production base in Shanghai has evolved into one of ABB’s two global robotics production bases (the other is in Sweden), with a single-shift capacity of 6,000 units per year. The robots we produce in China serve not only the demand of the China robot market but also global markets.” From 2005 to 2012, ABB’s robotics business in China grew at an average annual rate of 30%, outpacing the overall market, with total installations exceeding 16,000 units.
When asked about the rationale for focusing on the China robot market and establishing production there, Li Gang was candid: “The primary reason is that China is the world’s manufacturing base, and reliance on industrial robots is a key factor in enhancing competitiveness. Now, factors like the implementation of the national industrial upgrade strategy and rising labor costs make the demand for industrial robots in the China robot market even more apparent.”
Indeed, ABB’s early move into the China robot market proved prescient. While the first generation of industrial robots found success in the automotive industry of developed nations in the 1980s, ABB’s first order in China was also in automotive—supplying six welding robots for the Volkswagen Santana model in Shanghai. Today, ABB, with its comprehensive technology covering the entire automotive production process (stamping, body-in-white, painting, and powertrain), remains a preferred choice for many car manufacturers.
Fan Xinbo, equipment supervisor at Geely Auto’s Hangzhou Bay stamping plant, stated, “Aside from corporate strategic considerations, we chose ABB robots for our stamping workshop mainly because ABB has robots specifically developed for stamping automation, which better meet the specialized demands of automated stamping production.”
The entry of foreign brands like ABB into the China robot market met the application needs during its nascent stage and accelerated the integration of these sectors with international standards. To some extent, it also stimulated the development process of the domestic China robot industry.
Currently, the automotive industry remains the largest application sector for industrial robots in China. Production lines for BMW, BYD, Geely, Shanghai GM, Shanghai Volkswagen, Guangzhou Honda, Changan Ford, and Chery, among other leading manufacturers, extensively utilize robots. However, Li Gang points out that every industry faces pressure to upgrade, which drives demand for industrial robots. A key task now is developing new application markets. Yet, differing industry needs require deep sector knowledge, adherence to standards, and safety requirements—challenges all companies face when开拓 new fields.
Li Gang frequently emphasized the localization of ABB’s industrial robots in the China robot market, considering it crucial for their站稳脚跟. “Technologically, robot capabilities like speed, precision, and working range are unified global standards. But in application, robots must suit Chinese manufacturing and specific production environments. This requires local service and R&D teams to closely understand customer needs and provide customized solutions,” he explained.
The IFR highlights that China has become the world’s fastest-growing industrial robot market. Between 2005 and 2012, sales grew at an average annual rate of approximately 25%. It is projected that by 2014, demand for industrial robots in China will reach 32,000 units, making it the world’s largest consumer market. “As industry practitioners, we feel immense pride and excitement. But we also recognize that more domestic and international robot manufacturers will gather in China. Therefore, ABB will continue innovative research to expand robot application fields and grow our business in the China robot market,” Li Gang added.
Driven by national strategy and market forces, the race to capture the China robot market is intensifying. On June 22, Japanese robotics giant YASKAWA Electric opened a large robot production factory in Changzhou, Jiangsu Province—its first, and Japan’s first, overseas robot production base, with a designed annual capacity of 12,000 robot units. South Korea’s Hyundai Heavy Industries, which has already sold over 3,000 robots to China, is also actively seeking to establish a production base there, having scouted locations in Shanghai, Beijing, Guangzhou, and Yancheng.
This wave of large-scale investment by robotics giants in Chinese production bases undoubtedly increases competitive pressure on local players in the China robot ecosystem.
2. The Local Struggle: Seeking a Foothold in a Crowded China Robot Market
Compared to Japan, where robot technology entered practical use in the 1970s and widespread advancement in the 1980s, establishing a complete industrial system comprising both robot本体 enterprises (like YASKAWA, FANUC) and key component manufacturers (like Teijin, Harmonic Drive), Chinese local enterprises only truly entered the robot industry after 2000. Hence the saying that “China’s industrial robot development started decades later than abroad.”
A decade of grinding effort has led to significant breakthroughs. Nearly a hundred companies engaged in industrial robot production have emerged, including Siasun (Shenyang), Guangzhou CNC (GCNC), Boshi Automation, Estun, Juyi Welding, Wodi, and Qingdao Soft Control. According to CRIA statistics from its member companies (the top seven domestic robot本体 manufacturers), the output value of China-made robots grew from less than 600 million yuan in 2011 to over 1 billion yuan by the end of 2012—a 67% increase. However, this achievement remains distant from the domestic industry’s ambitious goal of reaching 300 billion yuan in annual output value.
Siasun Robot Automation Co., Ltd., established in 2000 by the Shenyang Institute of Automation, is regarded as a pioneer in China’s robot industrialization and currently leads the domestic industry. With its research institute background, Siasun embarked on a path of independent R&D from the start. Ha Enjing, head of Siasun’s Brand and Public Relations Department, explained that the company formed an R&D team of over a thousand people dedicated to tackling core robot technologies. In 2007, Siasun’s self-developed Autonomous Guided Vehicle (AGV) was selected by General Motors’ Shanghai plant and incorporated into GM’s global procurement platform. This partnership opened the door to international markets for Siasun. “Initially, we mainly exported mobile robots, which later helped drive exports of our automated stereoscopic equipment. Exports now account for about 20% of our total business,” Ha noted.
In 2012, Siasun, whose main businesses include industrial robots, logistics and warehousing automation systems, automated assembly and testing lines, and transportation automation systems, achieved operating revenue exceeding 1 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 33.29%. As its primary business, Siasun sold 1,200 industrial robots in 2012. Ha Enjing revealed that sales are expected to reach 3,000 units in 2013. She also emphasized that measuring output solely by individual robot sales is incomplete, as Siasun also uses robots as core components to extend its technology into intelligent equipment, with a compound growth rate exceeding 50%.
Despite this progress, the market share gap between local producers like Siasun and foreign brands remains significant. The dominance of foreign brands is not without reason. With over 40 years of experience, they are typical capital- and technology-intensive industries where economies of scale bring efficiency. Their long-term efforts in components, system integration, and process knowledge have created formidable advantages.
Zuo Shiquan, Director of the Equipment Industry Research Institute at the CCID Think Tank, stated that the China robot industry is still in its infancy. Beyond the small overall scale and even some workshop-style production, the main issues are technological gaps and significant shortcomings in key core components. “When customers choose robots, they primarily value reliability during application—low failure rates and ease of maintenance. This relates to manufacturing quality. Currently, the overall technology of domestic robots lags behind foreign advanced levels, roughly equivalent to international mid-1990s standards,” Zuo explained. Data shows that the Mean Time Between Failures (MTBF) for domestic robot products averages around 8,000 hours, while comparable foreign products can reach tens of thousands of hours.
He further pointed out that while China has several robot manufacturers, local robots generally fall short of imported counterparts in precision and speed. Crucially, key core components like servo motors, precision reducers, servo drives, and controllers rely heavily on imports. For instance, precision reducers mainly come from Japanese companies Teijin and Harmonic Drive, which hold 90% of the global market. Compared to foreign giants that have long-term partnerships and massive procurement volumes with these suppliers, domestic companies face much higher purchase prices for key components, making it difficult to reduce costs and resulting in less competitive性价比. If major foreign manufacturers engage in price reductions, pressure on the domestic China robot industry would intensify.
Given this landscape of technological disparity and import dependency, for local companies to capture a share of the market dominated by foreign brands is akin to snatching food from a tiger’s mouth.
In late July, Zuo Shiquan visited several representative robot companies in Japan and South Korea. He found the development model of Hyundai Heavy Industries particularly enlightening. Having captured 50% of South Korea’s robot market, Hyundai Heavy Industries does not manufacture reducers or servo motors itself. “When I asked if they had considered developing these key components, they responded that after evaluation, it would be economically unviable. The cost might be too high, making the final product uncompetitive in the market,” Zuo recounted.
He suggested that in the short term, while overcoming key component hurdles is difficult, China robot producers should first learn from the “Korean model,” focusing on robot system integration. This involves procuring key components or robot本体 and then designing and manufacturing peripheral equipment to create complete robot systems tailored for various industries, thereby expanding the application market. When conditions mature, they can gradually move toward the “Japanese model,” achieving independent production of robot本体 and key components, forming a system where different players specialize in various levels of turnkey engineering.
Therefore, most domestic robot companies, based on cost-benefit considerations, should focus on product application, using application to drive the development of the China robot industry. Companies with strong technical capabilities can strive for breakthroughs in specific key components with state support. Regarding application markets, Zuo Shiquan believes domestic enterprises must find opportunities in细分 markets—precisely the path Siasun has taken.
From its inception, Siasun devised a strategy: avoid the main battlefield, seek survival and development in areas foreign companies neglect or in non-critical sectors where customers might lower supplier requirements. Ha Enjing said, “Robot applications today aren’t concentrated in just one or two industries. Every market has segments; absolute,全方位 dominance by one player is unlikely. While automotive is mature, emerging markets like steel, shipbuilding, mining, home appliances, and fast-moving consumer goods will become new battlegrounds for robot applications. We get involved from the planning and design stage based on customer needs and ideas,结合 their processes, rather than simply selling robot products.”
“In robot applications, there’s a pattern: if you pioneer and lead in a certain field, other companies in that industry will likely turn to you when they consider using robots and automation because your experience there is mature. So, every company must position itself, find its细分 market, and expand its application领域 step by step.”
In competing for the China robot market, domestic companies must not only tackle technical challenges but also learn from foreign brands’敏锐嗅觉 in developing new applications. For example, ABB analyzes China’s labor force composition to identify new sectors. Li Gang noted that many post-80s workers are only children, and they and their families pay increasing attention to occupational health and safety. The electronics industry, particularly 3C (computer, communication, and consumer electronics), is most典型ly affected and a key future focus. ABB’s fastest and most precise six-axis robot, the IRB 120 “Chinese Dragon,” developed by its China team, has become highly sought-after in the 3C industry.
Despite the艰难 circumstances, He Minjia, Chairman of Guangzhou CNC, is confident about the future of the China robot industry. He stated that although foreign brands hold a massive market share in China, as the China robot market develops, the关键技术,性价比 advantages, and brand influence of domestic products will eventually gain recognition from more users.
3. Catalysts for Growth: The Forces Behind the China Robot Industry
If local robot enterprises are the main force in this breakout battle, with pioneers like Siasun and GCNC at the forefront, achieving a future of共同繁荣 for both domestic and foreign brands requires leveraging supporting forces: technological research and government policy.
Although China’s robot industrialization started late, robot technology research appeared in some institutional laboratories as early as the 1970s. Following the launch of the “863 Program” in 1986, a group of universities, including Harbin Institute of Technology and Beihang University, emerged as key research hubs. For a time,上百家 universities, research institutes, and research-oriented生产企业 like Siasun and GCNC created a vibrant landscape of robot technology research. Yet, behind this繁荣 lies a common遗憾.
Gao Junxiao, Executive Deputy Director of the Intelligent Robotics Institute at Beijing Institute of Technology, who is part of this research community, noted that with over two decades of support from programs like the 863 Plan and the National Natural Science Foundation, laboratories跟踪 foreign cutting-edge technologies and produced numerous new robot achievements. However, few were ultimately mass-produced as commercial products, indicating a low成果转化率.
This situation also exists at the Beijing Institute of Technology’s Intelligent Robotics Institute. Gao Junxiao revealed that among their成果, the ones considered truly市场化 are mainly exhibition robots developed for science museums. The cost of laboratory-developed robots often ranges from hundreds of thousands to millions, with immeasurable R&D labor投入, and this massive investment continues. Yet, many成果 end up displayed in laboratory showrooms, with their科研 value difficult to realize on a larger scale.
This represents the current chasm between robot technology research and the robot industry in China: a disconnect between industry, academia, and research. Gao Junxiao mentioned that they have collaborated with factories and enterprises before. While initial enthusiasm from robot manufacturers was high, the pursuit of profit and efficiency often clashed with the lengthy process required for technological breakthroughs, causing collaborations to fizzle out. Additionally, inadequate protection of intellectual property rights for robot technology by some companies during production also hinders integrated industry-academia-research collaboration.
“The emergence of new technologies often presents opportunities for a nation’s rise. Remote Britain relied on the mechanical revolution, Germany on the chemical and electrical revolutions, Japan on electronics, steel, and automobiles. Robot competition is pressure but also an opportunity. Seizing it could allow China to catch up; missing it would require a much longer追赶 period,” Gao Junxiao pointed out. “Therefore, accelerating robot technology research and promoting industry development is the path before us. Establishing integrated R&D and production models involving both enterprises and research institutes is crucial, especially while China’s robot innovation system is still in its early stages.”
Such university-enterprise cooperation not only advances technological R&D but also cultivates大批 technical talent with practical experience—a point recognized by ABB. Li Gang admitted that to adapt to its localization strategy in the China robot market, ABB plans to strengthen cooperation with local enterprises and research institutions in the coming years, alongside increasing the cultivation of local talent in industrial robotics.
At the 2013 China Robot Industry Promotion Conference forum, Wang Weiming, Deputy Director of the Equipment Industry Department of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology (MIIT), revealed that the “Guiding Opinions on Promoting the Development of the Industrial Robot Industry” would soon be officially released. He stated the guidelines would involve统筹 planning around the practical development needs of the industrial manufacturing sector, be market-oriented, enterprise-led, and focus on breakthroughs in key technologies. They would emphasize industrial layout, guide the balanced development of the robot industry, and form a robot industry system with international competitiveness. This policy will help harness the government’s guiding force for the China robot industry.
As a long-term observer, Zuo Shiquan has deeper thoughts on the forces needed to propel the China robot industry. He noted that the depth and breadth of industrial robot application have become important indicators of a nation’s manufacturing and technological水平. To improve the industrialization level of the China robot industry, besides the efforts of domestic enterprises and high-level technological support from research institutions, strong national policy support is indispensable.
Since foreign brands already hold an absolute market share in China, and purchasing foreign robots has become a default choice in certain industries, policies incentivizing the purchase of domestic industrial robots are needed. Zuo Shiquan suggested that once domestic industrial robots reach a certain reliability level, the government should implement a “first-set” policy. This could include: 1) Subsidizing end-users who purchase the first set of domestic products (e.g., 20% of the purchase price); 2) Requiring government procurement and state-owned enterprise procurement to优先购买 domestic first-set products, also with price subsidies; 3) Guiding enterprises to establish an insurance mechanism for domestic first-set products, with possible government premium subsidies. Establishing this insurance mechanism should be a key focus.
To promote the application of robots in manufacturing, he also建议 establishing industrial robot leasing companies to facilitate usage by smaller firms with limited capital. Additionally, guiding policies could mandate robot replacement for humans in certain dangerous, toxic, or hazardous jobs.
4. The Future Factory: Envisioning the Reach of the China Robot
In 2011, Terry Gou, founder of Foxconn, the world’s largest labor-intensive manufacturer, announced a “one million robot plan” to promote production line automation and achieve labor-saving. This announcement sparked widespread discussion and concern: Would workers on production lines be completely “liberated” by robots? In the era of robots, will we lose our jobs?
These concerns are not unfounded, given the significant benefits of robot application. “Our stamping production line is now fully automated, with a standard configuration of six robots per line,” explained Fan Xinbo from Geely. “One robot can replace four workers—two for feeding and two for unloading. Assuming an average monthly wage of 5,000 yuan per worker, the use of 13 robots saves the company over 3 million yuan in annual wage支出. More importantly, it prevents many safety accidents.” In automotive stamping, producing dozens or hundreds of parts per minute requires completing feeding, stamping, part ejection, and scrap removal in a brief time. The巨大 noise and vibration during stamping also pose hazards, making mechanization and automated material handling the preferred safety measures.
The ABB stamping robots used by Geely cost around one million yuan each, with a service life of approximately ten years. As robot technology advances, more production lines are recognizing its advantages. In 2012, Rapoo’s Shenzhen facility installed 70 of ABB’s smallest robots, IRB 120, to assemble mice and keyboards by mimicking human actions. According to Rapoo’s management, this not only freed workers from tedious,机械化 tasks and doubled production efficiency but also halved costs. The robots’ flexibility also reduced engineering design difficulty, shortening automated equipment development time by 15%.
In January 2013, data from China’s National Bureau of Statistics showed that the population aged 15-59 declined for the first time in a long period, decreasing by 3.45 million compared to the previous year, signaling the gradual disappearance of China’s demographic dividend.
Li Gang analyzed that while the decline in the demographic dividend impacts China’s labor market and will推动 the development of industrial robots, the primary driving force for wider application of industrial robots in the China robot market is corporate expectation and pressure for transformation, upgrading, and efficiency improvement. China is at a critical stage of industrial transformation. As indispensable equipment in advanced manufacturing, industrial robots have become a key indicator of a nation’s manufacturing and technological水平. They help companies improve production efficiency and product quality while reducing costs and energy consumption.
Ha Enjing echoed this: “Judging from market reactions over the past year or two, about 50% of enterprises are forced to use robots due to high labor costs, while the other 50% consider improving product processing quality and production efficiency.”
At the IFR-CRIA CEO Roundtable, participants generally agreed that in the future China robot market, applications in general industries will strengthen. Beyond traditional automotive, sectors like logistics and handling, electronics, food and beverage, and biopharmaceuticals will see increasingly widespread use of industrial robots.
Cai Hegao, a robotics and mechatronics expert and academician of the Chinese Academy of Engineering, provided guidance for the application development of China robot technology. “Internationally, some application fields for robots are still空白, such as underwater robots, mining robots, etc. As long as we strive to seize these commanding heights, we can lead the world.”
He Minjia painted a picture of the future factory: repetitive, dirty, and arduous tasks will be handled by robots. Within 3 to 8 years, industrial robots will see massive adoption, leading to a future of “robots in every factory.”
However, when asked if industrial robots could eventually cover all industrial sectors, Li Gang responded, “It’s slightly premature to discuss this. In areas with lower industrialization requirements, such as small-batch production lines or private手工定制 industries, the介入 of industrial robots may not be extensive.”
While annual growth rates for industrial robots in the Pearl River Delta region reach 30-60%, with a surge in usage in assembly, dispensing, handling, and welding, an industry insider admitted that even in electronics factories in the region, successful examples of industrial robots完全替代ing manual assembly tasks—like organizing wires, embedding electronic components, threading specific screws, or handling RT cloth—are rare.
Chang Haisheng, head of the robot business at Shenzhen Zowei Technology, also stated, “Robots are not a panacea. Even on Foxconn’s production lines, fully unmanned electronics factories abroad are rare.” Thus, even if the vision of “robots in every factory” is realized, it may not completely “liberate” workers on production lines.
Zuo Shiquan remarked that worrying about unemployment now is somewhat杞人忧天, as China is still some distance from完全普及 robot application. However, workers should take inspiration from this trend and prepare by improving their skills and transitioning from general laborers to technicians or even engineers.
Economists suggest that robot technology application will inevitably save a significant portion of the labor force, which could move into other sectors like services, continuing to create social wealth. However, if industrial structure fails to adjust promptly and workers do not receive adequate vocational education and training, those replaced by robots could indeed face unemployment.